The election was always going to tighten. It’s in between the conventions and the debates. The natural impulse is to revert to the mean.
The news media really, really, really wants this to be a horserace, so they’re going to do whatever they can to make it one.
National polls are meaningless and will remain so. We do not have a national election. Pay attention to the electoral college.
Donald Trump has no campaign and no ground game. He barely even got on the ballot in Minnesota. Early voting starts soon. It will matter.
Trump will be graded on the curviest curve that ever curved at the debates. Absolutely no matter what happens at the first debate, he will be named the winner if he does not shit himself. It will be declared a tie if he actually does shit himself. They will lose interest by the second (and third, if it happens) and the debates will widen Clinton’s lead again.
Tim Kaine will humiliate the fuck out of Mike Pence at the VP debate. Sadly, it will not matter.
Pay little or no attention to the Stein and Johnson campaigns, particularly the Stein campaign, as Jill Stein is an Internet troll and not even a credible candidate by third-party standards. They will not matter. I don’t care how they’re performing on the ballot right now. The election is still a month and a half away and their numbers will drop.
There has not been a single second so far where Donald Trump was in the lead. Not one.
When in doubt, consult this image, and remember 2008 and 2012, and remember that those folks are going to show up again.