In which we need your vote

There will be a post later tonight one way or another, I think.

In which I know nothing, but talk anyway

More politics! More politics!

What can I say, it’s been that kind of week.

So here’s the thing: it is impossible– completely, flatly impossible– to get the Democratic nomination without substantial support from the African-American community, and in particular without support from black women. Go ahead, if you like, and look through my posts about the 2016 primary: you will discover, as I quickly did, that one of the reasons Hillary Clinton’s nomination was damn near inevitable after a while was that Bernie reliably lost any state that had fewer than (if I remember right) 60% or so white voters. The only exception to this rule was Hawai’i, which is heavily nonwhite but is heavily Asian and Pacific Islander and not so much as black and Latino as the rest of the country.

It’s no secret that Buttigieg’s base is well-off white liberals. This is not, in and of itself, bad– that was actually Obama’s base when he started his presidential run too, and look how that turned out. But while Obama definitely had to convince black voters of his viability, he was never literally polling at zero percent with them. Pete is, at least in South Carolina, and I suspect in a whole lot of Super Tuesday states as well.

So obviously what he really needed right now was to mishandle it when a racist cop murdered a black person in South Bend.

(Don’t bother arguing with me about this. No body cam means the cop is guilty. If I end up sitting on the jury you can talk to me about bias. Until then, fuck this guy. Cops lie, and I am going to be 100% on the side of the dead people for the foreseeable future until America’s police forces clean house.)

So Pete’s done. It’s all over but the shouting at this point. Much like Sanders, his path to the nomination is basically closed without black support and statistically speaking he doesn’t have any. I do not, at this point, see that changing. He hasn’t put in the work and he keeps shooting himself in the foot.

What about Biden?

Joey Jo-Jo Junior Shabadoo is currently commanding the lion’s share of the black vote, much like he’s commanding the lion’s share of the polling in general. I went on a tear trying to find a Biden supporter yesterday and eventually managed to find one person who admitted after two tweets that he was her #1 choice but she couldn’t name anyone else running as a Dem.

I’m not actually criticizing this person. There’s a long goddamn time until any voting starts, and frankly it’s probably smarter to tune all of the nonsense out right now. No grief from me about this. But it really makes me wonder how soft Biden’s support actually is. And he spent yesterday saying all sorts of nice things about segregationists and how they never called him “boy.”

Candidates who they would have called “boy” had some things to say about that, as well you might fucking expect.

This is what I meant, yesterday, when I said that Biden has done his level best since deciding to run trying to erase any goodwill I ever felt for him. We can’t just Kumbaya our way to governance, no, we have to choose some of the worst possible examples we possibly can of literally evil Senators who he got along with just fine. The man has the instincts of a headless turkey and given that he’s run for office several times before on his own and never gotten close to the nomination I have to feel like he’s going to continue fucking up and voters are going to start looking elsewhere. And if you want to fuck up your numbers with the black community, there are probably a few ways more effective than telling everybody how well you got along with people who praised Emmitt Till’s murderers but you’re gonna have to work at it a bit.

The interesting question: assuming the voters do flee, where do they end up? Obviously I’d hope they end up with Harris or Warren, but anything can happen. There’s always the electability argument, which I think is mostly bullshit (Biden is polling best against the Current Occupant for the same reason he’s on top of the primary polls: everyone knows who he is) but has the advantage of being simple and truthy.

Only seventeen more months of this shit to go, y’all!

Democratic POTUS Candidates Loosely Ranked, June 2019 Pre-Debate edition

Let’s be clear here: right there in that picture is the ticket I want, and I don’t much care what order their names are in. I haven’t updated this since March, mostly because not a whole lot has happened to change things other than that my affection for Warren and Harris has continued to grow. I once told a phonebanker that I would drag my nuts across a mile of broken glass to ensure that I voted for Barack Obama; I’m not quite at that level yet but I’m certainly getting there. And, really, once you get past these two, there’s not a whole lot of talking to do.

SECOND TIER: In no particular order, Inslee, Gillibrand, O’Rourke, who hasn’t annoyed me in a while, and Castro. I don’t think any of these four will be the nominee but I’d be perfectly fine if it happened.

THIRD TIER: Klobuchar and Booker.

YOU FUCKERS AREN’T EVEN REAL PEOPLE, RUN FOR SOMETHING YOU HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN: de Blasio, Ryan, Hickenlooper, Delaney, Williamson, Yang, Bennet, Swalwell, and that Montana jackass who announced his campaign in May and thinks it’s a sign of a conspiracy that he isn’t in the debates. These folks don’t count at all and they’re a distraction to the process. I only know they exist because I copied their names from the debate lineup and I couldn’t pick any of them out of a lineup. After the first debate they need to all drop out.

HA HA, BYE, ASSHOLE: That Starbucks dickhead, who I think dropped out finally.

STILL DON’T WANT TO VOTE FOR YOU BUT YOU HAVEN’T PISSED ME OFF ANY MORE THAN USUAL LATELY: Sanders and Gabbard.

FUCK THESE GUYS: Biden and Buttigieg, who are probably going to end up being the fucking ticket. Biden, in particular, who I wasn’t excited about running for office but certainly didn’t dislike six months ago, has done every single thing he can to keep me from generating even the slightest whiff of enthusiasm for his campaign, including praising motherfucking James Eastland today. He clearly learned nothing from being Obama’s Vice-President for 8 years and still thinks that Republicans are just misunderstood nice folks who can be negotiated with if we just all come together. Well, they aren’t and they can’t, not anymore, and not recognizing that basic fact about the state of politics in this country right now is disqualifying for the Democratic candidate. Combine that with overt, undeniable sexism and an utter inability to keep his fucking hands to himself and this is not someone I want to vote for. He may even be legitimately lower than Sanders at this point. Plus, he’s getting the same kind of support that that one asshole who lost my most recent Congressional race did– in other words, he’s on top of the polls for some reason but hell if I can find even a single person anywhere who thinks of him as their top candidate. I asked Twitter about this earlier:

Not one response, other than a guy who said he wasn’t in his top 5. This guy has to have some fans somewhere. Who the hell are they?

Buttigieg, on the other hand, was once right behind Harris and Warren, and has spent most of his time since then basically doing the same shit Biden’s doing except at lower volume and without the handsiness. He’s a step above Biden and Sanders, certainly, but he’s drawing from the same Kumbaya school of thought about where we are right now and I’m not fucking having it. His reluctance if not outright refusal to release anything resembling actual policies is also starting to get on my nerves, particularly when stacked up against Warren, who I think at this point probably has a detailed plan for alien invasion, the Yellowstone caldera erupting, and multiple varieties of zombie attack. He probably doesn’t belong in the same tier as Biden if I’m being honest but I’ve still spent most of my time thinking about him lately being annoyed by whatever he did most recently. Another difference: I know people who are fervent supporters. I know where his people are coming from. Not the case with Joe. Seriously, if you consider yourself a big fan of his, identify yourself. I promise I’ll be nice.

Will there be a liveblog of the debates next week? Yeah, chances are there will.

More endorsements: At-Large City Council edition

I did not vote on Saturday as intended, life having determined it had other plans for me– which actually turned out to be good, as I had forgotten that there were ten Goddamn people running for the three at-large City Council seats and maybe I ought to look into that. Therefore, having spent part of my evening browsing campaign websites, and for those for whom my opinion might be relevant:

(My own district only has one candidate running, which is why I’m focusing on the at-large race, for the record.)

In which I endorse: local elections edition

This will be a brief note and not a full post, as I am barely even awake and really need to get myself up and moving, and chances are those of you for whom this is relevant know how to find my in my Clark Kent identity anyway– but I’m planning on voting early today, as is my usual preference, and I’ve decided I am voting for Regina Williams-Preston for Mayor of South Bend today.

The simple fact is that most of the current Democratic mayoral candidates are running on very similar platforms; there seems to be broad agreement about where the city is at and where we should be focusing our energy and our funds in the current years. We have an abundance of good options here. I am voting for Regina because in the years I have known her (through my job) she has built a reputation as a tireless, dedicated and approachable educator and as a member of the City Council she has been the type of public servant who looks for and builds consensus where it can be found. Feel free to seek out some of the national news articles that have been written lately about how she and Pete Buttigieg worked through some of her concerns about the 1000 Homes in 1000 Days program that convinced her to run for City Council in the first place, if you like.

The official election is this Tuesday, and early voting is available downtown right up to Election Day. A mayoral primary in an off year is likely to only draw ten thousand or so votes, so this is literally a situation where every single vote genuinely counts. I encourage any South Bend folks who are reading this to head down to the County City building today or tomorrow and vote for Regina.