I’m sitting here writing addresses on a stack of 200 postcards, and I can’t decide if I’m proud of myself for starting so early– they want them mailed on October 24th– or pissed that I put it off for so long, since I’m sure they’ve been sitting on my desk for a month by now. Probably a little bit of both?
At any rate, I’m more or less taking the night off tonight, because every time I touch something electronic I start doomscrolling and I don’t need it. I can’t do anything about anything that happens in Florida tonight, and watching the utter idiots who appear determined to livestream themselves drowning in their own homes tonight is not helping my mood or my mental health. Therefore: postcards, and once my handwriting starts to suffer I’m going to spend the rest of the night with a book. I’ll see you tomorrow.
I did get a sticker, but I got Indiana’s boring one, not any of these cool stickers.
I always try to vote early, but I don’t recall ever voting on the very first day I was legally able to before. This year, though? I wanted that shit over with, and I drove from work directly to Mishawaka’s county services building, arriving about 20 minutes before the doors closed. The line for early voting was out the door, and it took about an hour to get my vote cast.
For the most part, my votes will not surprise you.
These six fine ladies, along with two male ticket members:
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz for President and Vice-President Jennifer McCormickand Terry Goodlin for Governor and Lieutenant Governor Valerie McCray for Senate Lori Camp for US House Destiny Wells for Indiana Attorney General Maureen Bauer for State House
(They’re up there as a gallery, so it’s possible the order of the pictures doesn’t match the order of the names.)
I voted for the Democrat in all of the local races with one exception: I did not vote for Dave Niezgodski for State Senate, because Dave Niezgodski is a sex pest and I don’t vote for sex pests. I thought briefly about voting for his opponent, but without knowing anything about him, I decided to refrain; honestly, this will be a small enough turnout contest that I feel like simply withholding my vote is enough. I don’t need to actively vote for the other side.
I got to vote against the loathsome Derek “I have a penis” Dieter again, which always pleases me, because fuck that guy.
Purely voting strategically, I voted to retain all of the judges up for vote. I don’t really like voting for judges, to be honest; I rarely know who any of them are and they don’t campaign, and for some reason the Indiana bar’s survey isn’t out yet despite their website promising it’ll be ready by September 30th. I voted to retain because all of them were named by Mitch Daniels or Eric Holcomb, and if they were drummed out of office Mike Braun will likely be picking their replacements, and Mike Braun is a fucking lunatic. Whoever he picks will not be an improvement, so absent any information of use for any of them, retention it is.
The only thing left is the school board, and … our school board candidates are not exactly covering themselves in glory this go-round. My specific candidate for my district isn’t up this year, so I’m just voting at-large, and … ick.
I ended up voting for Jeannette McCullough and George Jones. I know both of them and I am not especially fond of one of them– in fact, I have suggested voting against one of them in the past– but the other choices are worse. In particular, if you’re local enough that this matters to you, I specifically do not endorse Gabrel Kempf and I really really really do not endorse Marcus Ellison. Please do not vote for Marcus Ellison. I have known him for a very long time and I do not want him on the school board.
Related:
Getting from work to the early voting center I used involved about ten miles of driving on a road that was sporting a surprising number of political signs. They’re really not all that common yet, although I’m sure that will change, probably by this weekend. And after a while something struck me about all those signs: first, that there were quite a lot of Harris-Walz signs, more than I really expected, and that most of the lawns with Harris-Walz signs also had other signs for local or state offices.
The interesting thing was the Republican signs. For the most part– and I may take this route again on my way home on Thursday to take a closer look and maybe do some counting– it seemed like lawns that had Trump signs only had Trump signs, and even more curiously, lawns with signs for any other Republican candidate often did not have Trump signs. There would either be a Trump sign by itself or a dozen local and state candidates and no Trump sign.
At the moment, I’m presenting this only as an interesting anecdote and I am not drawing any conclusions. I just want it noted for the record. Feel free to speculate on your own, if you like.
I’d like to point out that in my first post about the VeepstakesI said in the very first sentence that Kamala was going to choose someone who wasn’t on the list. And I couldn’t be happier with the choice of Tim Walz as Vice-President.
I think, in all honesty, the move with this guy is that after the joint barnstorming tour this week they should put him on a repeating schedule through the Midwest. Go Wisconsin-Indiana-Michigan-Ohio-Pennsylvania-Kentucky, then a day at home to recuperate, then do it again. I really and truly believe we can win all six states, and I’m not kidding.
(At this point I realize this post is going to be a rehash of a bunch of recent Bluesky posts I’ve made, so my apologies if you follow me there. Also, go follow me there.)
So, yeah, I was talking about this earlier on Bluesky, but I kind of want to record it here as something a bit more permanent. The big thing about the VP selection is it’s not supposed to matter, right? There’s always talk– I participated in it– about the pick bringing his home state, if that’s on the table, and beyond that the VP pick is basically just not supposed to fuck up. I was thinking about this this morning, and realized something: in every presidential election save one since I have been a relatively conscious human being, the winning ticket has featured 1) the VP candidate who won the VP debate, and 2) the VP candidate who, in general, was the more competent and energetic choice.
“Prove it,” you say? Sure, I love writing these.
1984: George H.W. Bush vs. Geraldine Ferraro. Bush Sr., if I don’t count Ford, who was only President during the first few months of my life, is easily the most competent and least evil Republican president of my lifetime, and he was enormously qualified to be president, especially in comparison to the loathsome, corrupt Ferraro. I will not pretend to remember the debate or even if there was one, but Reagan/Bush mopped the floor with Mondale/Ferraro, winning all but Minnesota, and a heavy storm in Minneapolis would have meant they won Minnesota too.
1988: This is the one exception to the pattern. If you remember only one thing about the VP debate in 1988, it’s Lloyd Bentsen telling Dan Quayle that Jack Kennedy was a friend of his and Quayle was no Jack Kennedy. Bentsen was also massively more qualified for the job– for any job, really– than Quayle was.
1992: My favorite VP debate of all time, featuring Al Gore, Dan Quayle and Admiral James T. Stockdale, an utter nut who turned off his hearing aid and wandered around aimlessly in the back of the stage for part of the debate. Clinton/Gore won the election, obviously.
1996: Al Gore and Jack Kemp. Four thousand people died of boredom during the debate. You don’t remember a thing about it. You don’t remember Jack Kemp. Jack Kemp doesn’t remember Jack Kemp. Bobdole remembers, though. Bobdole never forgets. Clinton/Gore reelected.
2000: Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman face off in the Politeness Bowl, where Lieberman, a supposed Democrat, couldn’t find a single thing that the most coldly evil man ever to hold federal office said that was worth even mildly disagreeing with. Cheney could have suggested feeding Lieberman’s children to lions and he would have pursed his lips, shrugged, and said that Cheney had a good point. Cheney/Bush won, and that’s not a typo.
2004: Cheney sacrifices John Edwards and his weird tongue tic to Shub-Niggurath and eats his still-beating heart raw on live television.
2008: Joe Biden vs. Sarah Palin, who most of America was already heartily sick of before the debate; it is indisputable that picking Palin was the number one factor in keeping John McCain out of the White House. (Just noticed: I flipped this and 2012 on Bluesky. Oops!)
2012: Biden literally ends Paul Ryan’s entire political career, spending the entire debate laughing in his face at everything he has to say.
2016: I was about to say “I take second to no one in my loathing of Mike Pence,” but I didn’t try to hang him on the Capitol stairs, so maybe I do take second to at least a few people. Either way, he served the purpose of shoring up the evangelicals for Trump. Quick, without looking it up: who was Hillary Clinton’s running mate?
You looked it up, you lying bastard.
At any rate, Tim Kaine is such a nothing-person that still, fully ten hours after writing this as a series of tweets this morning, I cannot recall what the fuck he looks like, or whether he’s still alive. I’m not convinced that he cost Clinton the election, especially with Palin as a recent exemplar of the breed, but it certainly wasn’t a choice that helped at all.
2020:
Also, remember the fly?
2024: I’m already ordering popcorn. I don’t even really know if this debate is going to happen, but I want to be prepared. Walz is going to demolish JD Vance. It’s going to be fucking glorious.
Yes, really, I said that. I have a rule, and I’ve had this rule for, I don’t know, three or four elections now. I do not vote for straight white men if there is an acceptable candidate who is not a straight white man on the ballot. That is, effectively, the tiebreaker.
Y’all, look at my ballot for this fall’s election:
Starting from top left, clockwise:
Kamala Harris, President of the United States
Jennifer McCormick, Governor
Valerie McCray, Senator
Maureen Bauer, State House Representative, District 6
Destiny Wells, Attorney General
Lori Camp, House of Representatives, IN-02
The Vice-President will almost certainly be a white guy and Lieutenant Governor is a white guy. I will vote for both of them, of course. My State Senate representative, Dave Niezgodski, is also a white man, but I will not be voting for him as he is a sex pest. Amazingly, the Republicans are not running anyone for the seat and his sole opponent is a Libertarian (and an engineer, which I find hilarious) so Niezgodski will likely win 70-30 without my help. And honestly the Indiana statehouse is so Republican-dominated at the moment I don’t even care if we lose the seat for a cycle. It genuinely won’t matter.
I’m basically casting six votes here, and all six are either for women or for tickets where a woman is at the top of the ticket. I have never been able to do that before, and it’s fucking awesome. I can’t wait to get into the ballot booth.
Naturally, USA Today leaked a list of people who, supposedly, have been asked to submit vetting materials to the Harris campaign. I didn’t buy it at first because neither Buttigieg nor Beshear were on it, and naturally now I can’t find the article, but one way or another Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, was on the list.
My immediate response was that he was too old, but he’s 60; I’d have put him a little older than that at first glance. Since then I’ve seen some videos of the guy talking, though, and … yeah, he’ll do just fine, especially if Buttigieg and Beshear are actually out of the running. I found other articles on USA Today while looking for the original one that indicated Buttigieg and Beshear were in the running, so again, I know nothingTM and grains of salt and all that shit, but I can definitely fuck with this guy.
That’s all I’ve got for today; I did a few hours of yard work and I still want to die. Check my man out, though.
(LATE EDIT: I forgot to mention that he was also a high school social studies teacher, in a public school district no less, for ten years. Dare I hope that I might have an administration with sane educational policy before I retire or die?)
The way this week has been going, I fully expect that by the time I’m done with this post Kamala Harris will have announced a running mate and it will be none of these people. But what the hell, let’s speculate. To be clear, I don’t have super strong feelings about any of these folks, and a lot of them I don’t know a lot about, so take all of this with salt as usual, and remember that I know nothing about politics. That said, let’s start top left and go clockwise.
Josh Shapiro: Brings Pennsylvania with him, I think, which makes him the most immediately attractive candidate on the list at least in terms of electoral votes. I am a little leery of putting a strong Israel supporter on the ticket; I don’t know a ton about Shapiro but what little research I’ve done indicates that AIPAC should be pretty fond of this guy. And, yes, I mean “strong Israel supporter” and not “Jewish person,” and if you don’t recognize the difference, I invite you to go talk to Bernie Sanders about Benjamin Netanyahu.
Andy Beshear: One of my best friends lives in Kentucky and she is absolutely ecstatic about the idea of him becoming VP. Brings Kentucky with him, potentially has a strong positive role in Ohio and Indiana as well. Probably the best direct comparison to JD Vance, and I get the feeling he absolutely despises him, which will be fun. Vance is basically Beshear’s Wario anyway. My wife’s choice.
Roy Cooper: Bringing North Carolina over would be cool, but he’s too old. I want this ticket to radiate youthful energy, damn it.
Pete Buttigieg: My horse. Easily the best communicator on the list and another person who absolutely personally despises JD Vance, who just said that he wasn’t a parent today. He has two adopted kids. Not sure if it’s the wisest move in the universe for the Presidential candidate to be a Black woman and the Veep to be a gay guy but I’m also not sure I give a fuck at this point. I didn’t like Buttigieg’s 2020 candidacy because he wanted to be a Kumbaya guy; I think four straight years of being hauled in front of Congressional committees to be preached at by belligerently ignorant assholes has probably cured him of that. I’m not convinced he brings any states with him, though.
Gretchen Whitmer: Has already stated that she’s not interested in leaving Michigan; I really don’t see Harris picking another woman anyway. She’d be great but it’s not going to happen.
JD Pritzker: No thank you. We already have Illinois and I don’t need a billionaire on the ticket.
Gavin Newsom: Meh. We already have California. Really viscerally hates Trump, though, which is nice.
Mark Kelly: An astronaut VP would be cool, but I’d kind of rather have him in the Senate. There would have to be a special election to replace him and the Senate is just too damn close right now to fuck around. Too old and we’re never electing a bald guy to the Presidency.
I thought about including a few people who aren’t in the picture– a few people have tossed Beto O’Rourke’s name into the mix, which … ehh— but I’m pretty sure our next VP is in that picture somewhere. Again, I’d be fine with any of them except maybe for Pritzker, and I’m not even all that sure, other than the billionaire thing, why I dislike him as much as I do. I don’t think he’s really in the running anyway. The three best choices are Buttigieg, Shapiro, and Beshear, and probably not in that order.
Gonna hit Publish and then go find out that she chose Mr. Beast. The post about him can be tomorrow.
I don’t have a ton I want to talk about tonight, but I did discover a piece of information earlier today that’s relevant to yesterday’s post and the Biden conversation in general. It occurred to me that we haven’t heard any talk about superdelegates during this primary. Now, on one hand, I wouldn’t expect to hear much about them, on account of there’s only one credible candidate and he’s the incumbent. But the fact that I hadn’t heard anything was interesting.
Well, it turns out the rules changed in 2020, mostly, I assume, because of the vast amount of bitching from Certain Parties in the last several elections about the superdelegates. So here’s how this works: I was correct about the pledged delegates. There’s just under 4,000 of them total and Biden needs a majority of them (which he already has) to be nominated for the Presidency on the first ballot.
On the first ballot.
This is the bit I didn’t know: there are superdelegates this year– 739 of them, to be exact, and technically they’re called “automatic delegates” now, but everyone knows they’re superdelegates– mostly, if you don’t know, elected Democratic officials and Party People. The automatic delegates do not get to vote on the first ballot. But if there isn’t a nominee after the first ballot? They can, which means the total number of delegates increases, which means the number of delegates needed for the nomination also increases.
I pointed out yesterday that even if an unwilling-to-leave Biden didn’t win on the first ballot, the pressure campaign on anyone who voted against him to change their vote in Round 2 would be extreme, particularly if he only missed the majority by a few votes. And to be honest, I feel like the sudden injection of hundreds of superdelegates probably works in the sitting president’s favor, meaning if he didn’t win on the first ballot, he’d likely win on the second. This is a big fucking question mark, though, especially for any scenario where Biden does decide to drop out and not immediately anoint a successor.
I promise, unless something staggeringly interesting happens tonight (Jesus please no) I’ll talk about video games or books or something tomorrow.
I encountered this earlier today on Bluesky and addressed #1 a little bit and now I kind of want to go through the whole thing. Let’s take the idea of Biden dropping out seriously. Why not. Believe it or not, I’m pretty confident about my answers to all of this; that said, feel free to take with salt if you so desire.
I am going to attempt to address each of these questions as neutrally as I can, by the way.
Can Biden be replaced against his will?
Absolutely the fuck not, and I mean that in the strongest terms imaginable. Right now Joe Biden has 3,904 pledged delegates. Everyone else, including “undetermined,” has … 45. He needs a majority. You do the math. While “faithless electors” technically are a thing, most of these folks were picked because they are loyal, and a substantial number of them are legally bound to vote for Biden on at least the first ballot. The idea that nearly two thousand of them would vote for other people on the first ballot is beyond fantasy. It will never, ever happen. And even if this literally impossible thing were to happen, unless those nearly 2000 people chose the same person, Biden would still have a huge plurality. He would absolutely be going back after each and every delegate who had voted against him for the second ballot, and again– he just needs a majority. This just isn’t going to be a thing under any circumstances.
Can Biden drop out?
Yep. He sure can. He could also die. He can direct his delegates to vote for someone else; they don’t actually have to do what he says. He can also simply “release” them and let them vote for who they want.
What if he drops out and throws his support behind Kamala Harris?
One presumes that Harris would be nominated on the first ballot if this happened. It would not be a guarantee but I think it would be very, very likely. The process to find a vice-president would be … interesting. One thing I haven’t seen anyone talking about is Biden throwing his support behind Harris and then becoming Vice-President again. He can do that! It’s happened twice, although neither John Calhoun or George Clinton were President in between the two vice-presidencies. The Constitution only specifies that the VP has to be eligible to become President; Biden has another term of eligibility. There is no legal barrier to him becoming VP again.
What if he actually resigns the Presidency?
This would be an astonishingly bad idea, as Kamala Harris assuming the Presidency would mean that we’d lose the Vice-President and thus lose our tiebreaker in the Senate. A new Vice-President would have to be approved by both the Senate and the House. The House is controlled by the Republicans. They could barely pick a Speaker. We would almost certainly go to January 20 without a Vice-President. You know what else the Vice-President is responsible for doing? Certifying the electoral votes. Regardless of who wins, I cannot even imagine the level of fuckery that could ensue in a situation where the election is close and we don’t have anyone in the position that is supposed to certify that the votes are counted correctly. It would make January 6, 2021 look like a fun day at the beach. I don’t even want to think of it.
Biden absolutely cannot be allowed to resign the Presidency. The good news is I think he’d rather die than quit at this point.
What if he drops out and doesn’t endorse, or endorses someone other than Harris?
There has not been a contested convention for either political party during my lifetime. I believe the last contested Democratic convention was in 1968, coincidentally the year LBJ decided to not sit for another term and then Bobby Kennedy was assassinated. It … didn’t go well. I think it’s still entirely possible Harris wins on the first ballot even without an explicit endorsement. If she doesn’t, who the fuck knows what happens next.
It is probably worth pointing out that if any of the people currently getting tossed about as magical saviors replacement candidates were actually interested in the role, we’d be hearing about them trying to consolidate support behind the scenes. We haven’t, because no one is doing that.
What about a mini-primary?
That’s basically just a contested convention. As I said, one hasn’t happened in a while, but they’re hardly historically unprecedented. Nonetheless, it would be, charitably, a huge fucking mess. I’ve promised to try to be neutral so I won’t go further into that.
What about getting the winner on the ballot in all 50 states?
This, at least in theory, actually isn’t a problem. The Democrats and Republicans both have a ballot line in every state and the various territories that is currently sitting there empty waiting for an official nominee. Whoever the nominee is will be on the ballot. (*)
(*) In a normal year. I can very easily imagine legal fuckery. It would be meritless but the Supreme Court just decided that bribing them is legal and that the President is a king. Those decisions were also meritless. “Meritless” is kinda the Supreme Court’s thing right now. Typically, though, political parties are given wide leeway in determining their own nominees, and I’m not aware (I could be wrong!) of any case of a major-party nominee being seriously challenged in court for ballot access. That says, something ends up on Matthew Kacsmaryk’s desk, who the fuck knows what happens next.
Who takes the money pot?
Hahahahahahaha lol we’re all fucked.
Okay. If Harris/Whoever is the nominee, we’re good. Kamala Harris is part of the Biden/Harris ticket. She should still have access to the funds raised for their candidacy. Note, for the record, that this is the part of this explainer that I’m least confident about, but I’m still confident enough to be writing about it. Presumably they wouldn’t lose a ton of staff over this; there would be some hiccups and some rearranging and such but I don’t foresee any substantial organizational or legal issues.
If the nominee’s name is not “Kamala Harris,” though, we run into some serious shit. The Biden/Harris campaign cannot simply sign those millions and millions of dollars over to some other candidate. They can, after settling the campaign’s debts and dealing with the no doubt huge number of people who want their money back, donate the rest of it to a PAC, or an organization like the DNC, who may spend it as they see fit.
The new candidates would have to start from scratch. They would inherit some infrastructure from Biden/Harris but … Christ. Office leases would have to be renegotiated. TV time, radio, internet and print advertising is still sold … to Biden-Harris. They’d have to staff up almost completely; at the very least everyone who worked for Biden-Harris would have to be rehired, and all of this on no money, at least at first. Website infrastructure. Immense amounts of fundraising, both small-donor and massaging big donors and bundlers, a good portion of whom will probably be pissed that their person wasn’t picked. Email lists. Voter lists. Volunteers. Bank accounts. Fucking candidate scheduling. Across the entire country. All at once.
Oh, and picking a Vice-President, which would also be necessary, and would be a fucking huge mess because that type of thing typically takes months of vetting and carefully examining closets for skeletons. This would make Sarah Palin look like …
… actually, it probably still wouldn’t be as fucked up as picking Palin.
Anyway, part of the reason why we don’t hear anything about Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer getting themselves ready to run for President after the convention is that neither of them are stupid people, and they realize that building up an organization to run for the Presidency is insanely complicated and doing it in three months from nothing is fucking impossible. Neither of them wants to be the person who took the reins from Biden/Harris and then got blown the fuck out of the water because it took a month to even get staffed up.
Most of the people who are advocating for Biden to drop out have not thought about any of this. I’m pretty sure I have a good idea why; I promised to be neutral, so I won’t talk about it. Look at yesterday’s post for an idea, if you like. This is all magical, underpants-gnome thinking of the worst kind, and I would appreciate it if people acted like they have some fucking sense. Please.
Welcome to infinitefreetime dot com 