He ain’t never gon’ be President now: in which I liveblog the third debate for some reason

8:57: Having only just now decided officially that I’m going to watch this damn thing, I put on my Jackass wristband.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I’ve had this headline in mind since the first debate.  Granted, it’s not the most subtle joke of all time, but I’m kinda pissed at Lin-Manuel for what happens around the three minute mark of this video:

Quit stealing my thunder, dude.

9:00: God, moderator dude whose name I used to know but can’t remember right now, I can’t handle your voice.  This may be a terrible idea.  I need to figure out what my picture theme is going to be.  Moderator dude asks for “blessed silence,” and immediately Wolf Blitzer starts talking, which seems oddly appropriate.

9:02: I come up with a theme.  I predict, in response to Wolf’s dumb question, that Trump will not take the high road.

9end_is_near:05: Technically, the audience hasn’t agreed to anything.  They just didn’t argue with you when you said they’d shut up.  The first question is about the Supreme Court, which is blessedly important and non-stupid.  I think my biggest problem with the second debate was how dumb the audience questions were.

9:08: Clinton gives a typically substantive answer, although she doesn’t touch the “living document” aspect of the question.  Meh.  Two minutes.  Trump takes the opportunity to take shots at Ruth Bader Ginsburg and then yaps about the Second Amendment.  No Democrat in recent memory has taken even a half-assed shot at fiddling with the Second Amendment; I don’t have any idea how the hell Republicans are still scaring people with this shit.  It’s not his worst answer in history, but that’s a crazy-low bar.

9:12: Trump opens his mouth as if he’s thinking about interrupting and then closes it again.

9:14: Toddlers shot 43 people in the United States in 2015, by the way.

9:16: Yes sure let’s talk about abortion.  Trump hasn’t interrupted yet but he keeps opening his mouth and closing it and sometimes mouthing words.  Not sure what’s going on there.

revelation-12-296x3009:17: I thought this was going to be a table debate, by the way, and I’m kinda glad it’s not.  I note that in this debate Clinton has gone on the attack before Trump.  This surprises me.

9:18: Trump takes a drink and his hands are visibly shaking.  There’s a bit of back-and-forth on late-term abortions.  Clinton hits it out of the park.

9:21: Let’s see if Trump denies any of his previous statements on immigration.

9:23:  Return of the Sniffles.  Twice in less than thirty seconds.  Make that three times in less than a minute.  We have to “get” the drug lords, says the guy who is sniffling like a cocaine addict.

9:24: More water.  He’s had more water in the first twenty minutes of the debate then either of them in the first two debates.

9:25:  “Trump went to Mexico.  Didn’t even raise the issue of the wall.  He choked.”  We’ll see if he can keep his shit together.  I’m not sure Trump actually remembers the Mexican president’s name.

9:26:  And heeeeeere we go.  He cannot.

9:27: She’s absolutely right here.  You curtail undocumented immigration by cutting off the jobs.  This is why immigration is such a divisive issue within the Republican party— because the money people know they need cheap labor and the socialcons want fewer brown people.

3b2abb27228af305f4f4c380d3713cc29:29:  Whatshisnuts is getting run over by both of them.

9:30: I love that Ecuador cut Julian Assange’s internet connection off, by the way.

9:31: Trump laughs at Clinton pivoting from Wikileaks to Russian espionage and then immediately begins talking about terrorism and ISIS.  He’s moving into mid-debate Trump at this point; he kept his shit together for half an hour and that’s all that he can handle.  He’s currently yelling “No puppet!  You’re the puppet!” into the microphone.

9:33: Have we seriously never had a foreign government try to meddle in our elections?  I admit that I can’t come up with an example but I’m startled at the notion that it’s never happened.  She’s laughing at Trump again, who is insisting that no one has any idea who was behind the leaks.

9:36: Here we go again with the “we can’t afford NATO” nonsense.  He literally said Saudi Arabia and Japan should have nuclear weapons.  It’s like he has no idea that what he says gets recorded.

9:37: The next topic is the economy.  I decide to check in on Twitter.  More water.

9:39: I grayed out for a minute.  Clinton is still talking so I assume we’re still on the economy?  Sure.

disaster9:40:  It blows my mind that this whole “tax cuts on the wealthy” thing is still an idea.  I’m super happy that Clinton passes on the phrase “Trumped-up trickle-down” this time.  It was never any good.  Trump goes right back to government-as-protection-racket.  Sigh.

9:42:  Holy crap.  Trump said Japan shoudl have nukes while talking to Chris Wallace, who is currently moderating the debate:

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Maybe bring that up, Chris.

9:45: Interesting how Wallace can remember previous interviews that he’s done when he’s talking to Hillary.

9:46: Has she described her plan as “from the middle out, from the ground up” before?  I like that turn of phrase.

9:47: He’s reverted to Calm Trump.  Time to needle him again.

9:48: More water.  Calm Trump lasted maybe 30 seconds, sorry about that.  He’s back to Turtle Smile Trump, where he sticks his lips out and looks stupider than normal.  He gives her an opportunity to attack his connections with Chinese manufacturing and she takes it.  There’s that needle I was wondering about.

hqdefault9:50:  “Make it impossible for me to be unethical and I won’t be unethical any more!”  Good job, Donald.

9:51: Whoopsie.  He gives her another chance to compare their records.  This is not a good idea, Donald.  You will not come ahead on this.

9:52: Count down to bankruptcies in three… two… one…

9:53:  Wow.  She lets Wallace change the subject without pushing back.  Then again, Wallace changes the subject to Trump groping women, asking him “why would so many women make up being groped by you?”  So… it’s a wash, I take it?

9:54: What the fuck is he talking about?  The Clinton campaign paying people to be violent at his rallies?  Are you fucking kidding me?

9:55: He denies saying that women weren’t attractive enough to abuse.  Yeah he did.  You’re on tape, you fucking idiot.  

9:57: Clinton comes perilously close to saying “make America great again” and catches herself just in time.  That would have been funny.

9:58:  Oh god enough with the fucking emails.

9:59:  There’s gotta be better ways to get famous than by telling the entire world Donald Trump grabbed you by the pussy.  I’m just saying.

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10:00: The idea that he’s blaming her for the violence at his rallies is flat-out insane.  What the fuck is the tape he’s talking about?  Does anyone know what he’s referring to?

10:01: I spend a moment thinking about praising Chris Wallace for being more evenhanded than I expected him to be and then he brings up the Clinton Foundation.  Sigh.  The Clinton Foundation’s books are open, folks, and the charity gets ridiculously high marks from watchdog groups.  It should not be surprising that people with the money to make large donations to the Clinton Foundation are also people who are influential enough to meet with the Secretary of State. Trump calls the Foundation a “criminal enterprise” twice.

10:02: I’m guessing that “Because the money got spent fighting AIDS in Africa” is the reason why they aren’t going to give the money back.  Trump somehow uses having been to Little Haiti somewhere in Florida as evidence of his foreign policy cred.  Do you think he knows that they aren’t the same place?

10:04: Trump is blatantly lying about his foundation right now.  Blatantly fucking lying.  The state of New York has banned the Trump Foundation from continuing to raise money.  Between this and the last couple of minutes of nonsense about Clinton taking money as if she got to spend Foundation donations herself.  This is fucking ridiculous.  And he goes back to the “I can’t be blamed for being unethical” bullshit again.

1dogs-and-cats-together-0710:07:  WHY HASN’T ANYONE STOPPED ME FROM BEING SUCH AN ENORMOUS FUCKING ASSHOLE YET???  Fuck you, Donald.

10:08: Trump refuses to accept the result of the election.  Flat-out refuses, on stage, during a presidential debate.  A moment later, he says that it’s because there are “people registered to vote” who shouldn’t be.  Get this evil fascist fucker the fuck off the fucking stage.

10:09:  We all know who the loser is in this situation, Chris.

10:10: Clinton rips his guts open and dances in a shower of his blood.

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10:12: God, can we please ban the use of the word “surge” by any politician for at least, oh, I dunno, the next thirty or forty years?  A generation or two?  Please?

10:16:  I stop paying attention to the several minutes where Trump is talking about foreign policy.  It’s too fucking tiring.  He’s denying supporting the Iraq war again despite the reams of evidence to the contrary.  I suddenly really wanna go to bed.

10:18:  blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

10:19: Clinton calls Trump “the most dangerous person to run for office in modern memory” or something similar, and Wallace laughs.

10:20:  Trump is now blatantly arguing with Wallace.  I don’t even know what he’s talking about right now.  Then again, no one does.  I don’t think Trump knows what “fallen” means in this context.

031d78adc897b2119f263f9f9879bb8c_2011012710:21: Trump is praising foreign dictators again.  God, the shit he’s saying just doesn’t make any fucking sense.  We’re not in Syria right now.  Does he even know that?

10:23:  For the record, I have absolutely no idea how to cut the Gordian knot that is Syria, and no idea whether a no-fly zone has any chance of being a good idea.  I do know the safest thing for everyone is to keep Donald fucking Trump as far away from the fucking decision-making process as we fucking can.

10:26:  “We’re bringing GDP from one percent,” says a man who has no fucking idea what GDP stands for.

10:28:  I love how every single one of Donald Trump’s plans is “We’re gonna make it great” with absolutely no goddamned details at all ever.  Every single one of them.

10:30:  “Can I say something?” Trump says.  “No,” Wallace says.  Trump says something.

10:31: You save Social Security by getting rid of the cap on contributions.  It ain’t hard.  Yeah, it’s a tax raise.  They’ll live.

10:32: Trump says he’s glad that premiums are rising under Obamacare.

the-filipino-times_study-says-cats-do-not-need-owners-as-dogs-do10:33:  Pretty sure Clinton’s not about to tell the world she’s gonna slash SS or Medicare benefits.  “Such a nasty woman,” Trump says.  Guess which word is the one he really has a problem with.

10:34: “Your husband disagrees with you,” the misogynist says.  So?

10:35: I predict that Clinton talks about why she should be elected and Trump talks about why Clinton shouldn’t be elected.

10:36:  From literally the first words out of his mouth, I’m right.  She doesn’t mention him at all in her final statement.  Obama’s approval ratings have never been higher and he’d have 80% of the vote if he were running.  Go the fuck away, you witless cretin.

wegotthis

 

 

You must be out of your Goddamned mind: in which I liveblog the 2nd presidential #debate

First of all:

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Okay.  I can do this.  I can do this.  I’ll survive.  Also, the rest of this post will be populated by pictures of adorable animals wearing hats because I think we’ll all need that tonight.

We ready?  Okay.  Here we go.

8:46: I put on my Jackass wristband.  I realize the TV isn’t on yet and I’m in my recliner already and don’t know where the Goddamn remote is.  I hit Submit while I look for it.

8:51: I get everything situated.  CNN, bewilderingly, is showing the chancellor of the university and some muckety-muck from the debate commission yapping at the students in the audience about how other countries don’t let people be ignored by candidates while they talk about whatever they want ask questions of their candidates.  How many countries are actually “shocked” by this?  Can’t be that many, can it?  At any rate, I can hear the audience not paying attention in my soul and I’m surprised that CNN isn’t showing yapping heads.  I don’t think I actually miss them though.

8:53: For the record I’ll give Trump no more than a 50/50 chance of actually staying on stage for the entire debate.

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8:54: The student body president is talking now.  He tells the front three rows that they may get wet.

8:55: The talking heads are on now.  Wolfie sounds really depressed.  They’re actually debating whether the spouses will shake hands.  We are reminded that the people asking the questions are undecided voters, meaning that they are among the stupidest people in the world and really don’t belong at this forum in the first place.

8:57: God, Uday and Qusay just reek of loser fratboy rapist asshole.  I am entertained that they felt like they needed two moderators tonight.  Unmentioned is the bouncer backstage.

9:00: Holy shit is Melania’s death glare impressive.

9:01: Every so often I forget that Anderson Cooper and John… wait, is his last name Anderson?  Anyway, I forget that they’re not the same person.  They might actually be; the glasses might be some kind of Clark Kent thing.

9:02: There was some mumbling on Twitter this morning that Pence had actually quit the race but it doesn’t appear to have developed into anything.

9:04: If anyone was considering dropping a nuclear weapon on northern Indiana anytime soon I’d really appreciate it if it happens in the next three or four minutes.

cat-in-furry-hat9:05: EXCEPT FOR NOW!

9:06: No handshake, but Hillary said hello like twelve times.  Trump is standing behind his chair for some reason.

9:07: The first question is dumb.  This will, no doubt, be a theme tonight.  There are at least three black questioners and I don’t have the slightest idea how it’s possible that they found three black undecided voters in St. Louis.

9:09:  Are they really going to have to hold microphones during the debate?  Seriously?  No wireless mikes?  Trump doesn’t move during his answer and — oh, there’s the first sniffle — fills it with irrelevant statistics that have even less to do with the answer than Hillary did.  He claims that police officers are being killed on a “weekly basis.”  Nah.

9:11:  Here we go.  Anderson goes straight at him about the videotape; Trump denies what every single one of us have heard.  Trump yaps about ISIS.  This isn’t gonna work.

9:12: “No one has more respect for women than I do.”  Sure.

9:13: That jacket doesn’t fit, by the way.  Hillary gets a chance to respond to the tape.  I hope she just says “no,” but naturally she doesn’t.  Instead she says to his face that he’s not fit to be President.  Whoa.

9:14: Is there another question coming?  Maybe one that isn’t dumb?   Hillary returns to the “we are great because we are good” line, which I think maybe I like?  I’m not sure.

bw5r2pfimaaz68z9:16: What kind of downers do you think they have him on right now?  And can he actually not breathe through his mouth?  He’s already whining about fairness.  Fucking loser.

9:18: Second question also about the tapes.  He’s fucked.  He says that there’s no one in “the history of politics” more abusive toward women than Bill Clinton.  Thomas Jefferson comes to mind.

This isn’t going to work, Donnie.

9:21:  Hillary demonstrates why it isn’t going to work.  He’s not running against Bill Clinton.  He’s running against Hillary.

9:22: It’s as if Hillary didn’t just spend years working for the Obama administration.  She’s openly laughing at Trump on stage right now.

9:23: Holy shit why is his tie so long.  It’s past his crotch!  What the hell kind of grown man wears a tie like that?

9:24:  He yaps about “acid-washing” the emails.  Does Donald Trump think emails are jeans?  Hillary literally can’t get through her answer without chuckling.

9:26:  Jesus I just don’t give one single fuck about Hillary’s emails.  Not one single tiny little fuck, ever, at all.  No fucks.  None.

cute-snakes-wear-hats-101__7009:28: Nobody gives a fuck.  Still.  And nobody knows what the hell Sniffly’s even talking about.  Are we only on the second question from the audience?

9:29: This is a child.  How the hell is anyone voting for this guy?

9:31:  I occasionally refer to Obamacare as the My Mom Might Be Dead If This Law Hadn’t Passed Law, if you were wondering where I stand on it.

9:32: I’m very good with this answer, for the record.

9:33:  The “You can just die if you’re poor and get sick” act of When The Fuck Are The Republicans Going to Release Their Health Plan is the alternative Trump is talking about here.

9:34:  I note Jules from Pulp Fiction is sitting over Hillary’s shoulder.

9:35: Employer-based healthcare is the root of the problem, for the record.  What is Trump doing right now?  He’s standing with his arms at his side and just sort of fucking wandering around like an idiot.  For the first time, Clinton ignores Anderson trying to follow up.

9:37: Trump’s plan is literally “You’re gonna have plans.”  That’s all he ever says.  “You’re gonna have plans.”  People are going to vote for this idiot.

b8c59f405ab7ba683042f7add86cb7f49:38: Maybe if Trump had health insurance he’d stop sniffling.  “We’re gonna keep pre-existing.”  Idiotic.

9:39: They found an undecided Muslim in St. Louis.  No they didn’t.

9:40: Trump is asked how he’ll help Muslims deal with being treated as a threat to our country and he says that they’ll have to call the cops on each other when they have bombs.  It’s the dumbest thing he’s said yet.

9:41: Unfortunately, Hillary also hits the “you’ve gotta rat each other out” line, although not as harshly as Trump does.  She makes it sound a bit more inclusive somehow.

9:43: blah blah blah blah lies lies lies lies lies.  He whines about the moderator some more.

9:44: I’m pretty sure Republicans are against safe spaces, aren’t they?  Hillary’s laughing at him again.

9:45: I kind of wish I had time to pay attention to Twitter right now.  My wife is sitting a few feet away staring at her phone and she’s been cackling all night.

9:47: She’s laughing at him again.  I’m pretty sure Sniffles hasn’t so much as cracked a smile all night.

tumblr_mc10vqdflp1r3n418o1_5009:49: Damn sure politicans should have private and public opinions.  That’s because it’s politics.  If you’re not going to move someone from A to C on your own all at once, shoot for B and talk like you’re a fan of B until everyone gets there.  Then move them to C.  This does not bother me.

9:50:  Any time I hear the word “Wikileaks” I reach for my gun.  Then I remember I don’t have one and I’m sad.

9:52: “I know nothing about Russia,” says the Republican candidate for President of the United States.  Then he yammers something about how she can ask the “United States Government” about his taxes.  I literally have no idea what the hell Sniffles is talking about right now.  He repeats the lie about being audited again.

9:54: “Why didn’t you change the tax code to prevent me from cheating on my taxes?” asks the Republican candidate for President of the United States.  I’m getting bored.  There are, somehow, 35 minutes late.

9:55:  BIG-LEAGUE!!!

tumblr_niltjeszzt1syglkno1_12809:57:  Hillary is either really passionate about the tax code or her composure is starting to crack a little bit.  She looks pissed for the first time during the debate.

9:58: Trump just admitted he hasn’t paid federal taxes in 20 years.

9:59:  Was that my connection, or did his mic actually just short out for a second?

10:00: He names a bunch of names and then says he’s not going to name names.

10:01: This “had a chance and didn’t do anything about it” line might actually have room for some traction if it wasn’t surrounded by so much goddamn insane crazy shit.  His mic cuts out again.

10:02: Does he seriously not understand how the Congress works?  She pivots straight into talking positively about her record.  Whoopsie.  Meanwhile, I’m wondering how many actual audience questions we’ve had tonight.

10:03: How many goddamn times has Facebook been mentioned in this debate?  And I’m pretty sure we’ve been talking about Syria since before that picture was taken.

10:04: I suspect Trump’s answer will not actually involve Syria and will be about allowing refugees in.  Just a hunch.  I take a moment thinking about arguing with the questioner’s Holocaust analogy and decide not to bother.

0000ae90_big10:06: My feed shits out for a few seconds.  When it comes back, Sniffles is somehow claiming that Russia is “new in terms of nuclear,” which… what?  That’s barely even English.

10:08: What the hell is he talking about?  This literally doesn’t make a single fucking bit of sense.  As I predicted, his answer has nothing to do with the humanitarian crisis.

10:09:  “He and I haven’t spoken,” says the Republican candidate for President of the United States about his running mate.

10:10: Still not talking about the humanitarian crisis.  He’s asked by the moderator what will happen if Aleppo falls and starts talking about Mosul.

10:11: This guy’s a fucking psychopath.

10:12:  For the record, I wouldn’t be surprised if ground forces end up in Syria within the next couple of years no matter who is the President.

10:14: Haven’t we already armed the hell out of the Kurds?  I actually don’t know the answer to that, for the record.

10:15:  ‘Sup, Jules?

awesomelycute-animals-wearing-hats-410:15: Wait, really, that’s your question?  “Will you be a devoted president to all our people?”  Are you fucking kidding me?  You’re not Jules.  Jules was cool.  You’re the guy from Black Snake Moan.  Trump’s yapping about the gold standard; I don’t even know what that means.  He appears to be entirely unaware that black people live outside of the inner cities.  He’s unable to even discuss black or Latino issues without talking about inner cities.

10:17:  I bet the insanely red-faced fat man is a Republican.  Just a hunch.  My sound cuts out again.  I kinda feel like Jules was asking a Jesus question and didn’t think he could get away with it.

10:20:  “My argument is not with his supporters.  It’s with him.”  That’s actually not a bad answer.  I can get away with calling Trump’s supporters a festering pit of racist, sexist ass-cysts.  Hillary probably shouldn’t.

10:21: Seriously Sniffles should be able to afford a tailor and a suit that fits.  This is ridiculous.

10:22:  He’s not seriously about to go after Alicia Machado again, is he?  I quit out of the app and go back in again and we’ve gone 45 seconds back in time OH MY GOD THIS DEBATE WILL NEVER END.  KILL ME.

ouwcl10:23:  It was totally “check out a sex tape.”  He tries to shoehorn in Benghazi, which is also something no one cares about.  My feed is really starting to shit the bed.

10:24:  I can’t decide if I’m sad or relieved that my internet connection has decided to kill itself rather than attempt to continue streaming the debate.

10:25: I have no idea one way or another but I would wager the entire contents of my wallet that growth is not in fact the slowest since 1929.

10:26: “I will name Barack Obama to the Supreme Court.”  SAY IT.

10:28:  She doesn’t say that, but this was a good, direct answer.

10:29: I feel like Sniffles has directed very few of his answers at actual members of the audience tonight.  Trump pivots, for some reason, into asking Clinton why she isn’t self-funding her own campaign.

awesomelycute-animals-wearing-hats-1610:31:  I hear the name “Ken Bone” and start laughing.  Then I see Ken Bone and what he decided to wear to the debate and I cannot even any longer.  I don’t even know what the fuck his question was about; I was laughing too loud and didn’t hear it.  Is it sleepytime yet?  I want it to be sleepytime.  I may be a little loopy by this point.

10:32:  KEN BONE!

10:33:  Kenbooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnne.

10:34:  Kenbone kenbone, whatcha gonna do?  Whatcha gonna do when they come for you?

10:35:  Kenboan’s sweater looks warm and comfy and I want to crawl into it while he’s wearing it.  It is possible that he’s wearing a white tie with his white shirt but I can’t quite tell.  Bone bone fo-fone banana fana fo-bone, me mi mo mone BONE.

10:36:  Fone_Bone.jpg

10:37:  Suddenly Trump turns very complimentary as his final statement and I don’t know what’s going on and it’s overrrrrrrr 

IN CONCLUSION:

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For the record: on Bill Clinton

44_bill_clinton_3x4-1We’re about to have another dumpster fire of a town-hall debate, in about an hour or so, and I’m going to attempt to liveblog the thing again, although I continue to make no promises that I’ll actually survive the thing.  I wanted to get one thing out of the way before the debate starts, however, in anticipation of a certain participant attempting to make hay of Bill Clinton’s record with women.

I had a conversation with my wife the other day about, were Clinton somehow younger than he is now and not so obviously addled (I really do think the man is seriously unhealthy) and if he ran for President– you can see how this hypothetical gets convoluted quickly– knowing what we know, or suspect, about him, would either of us vote for him?  Bill Clinton was the first Presidential candidate I ever cast a ballot for, in 1996.  I wasn’t old enough to vote for him in 1992, but I would have.

We ended up agreeing that, with his we’ll say shady reputation, it was highly unlikely that nowadays he’d even manage to get the nomination in the first place.  My wife brought up the example of John Edwards, who you may have heard of, but certainly not recently.  For the non-family-values party, the Dems certainly don’t seem too big on adulterers.

But: I voted for a guy in 1996 who has been accused of rape and multiple instances of sexual harassment, and would have voted for him again in 2000 had the Constitution not prevented it, and by that time he’d not only been accused of rape and sexual harassment but he’d been caught in an affair that was at best squicky about the power relationship between the two legally-consenting adults involved.(*)

I would not, in 2016, vote for a man with such a record.  I suspect in 1996 I simply brushed the entire thing off.  In 2016 the number of women involved and the skeevery of the affair we know he had are more than enough to prevent me from ever voting for him again, or anyone like him now.  I don’t know what the hell happened with Juanita Broaddrick, Paula Jones, or any of the rest of them, but one of the big differences between me now and me in 1996 is my deliberately cultivated habit of believing women when they accuse people of this shit now.  I will still defend Clinton’s presidency.  I will not defend him as a person, and I wouldn’t vote for him again.  Those three things can all be true at the same time.

And it should go without saying that not a bit of this has any reflection on the job Hillary Clinton would do as president.  None of us are being asked to vote for Bill again, and Bill’s nature as a sexual harasser is not a relevant issue to Hillary’s suitability for the presidency.  Trump will try and confuse the issue; he should be scoffed at.  Hillary is no more responsible for Bill’s activities than any of Trump’s three wives (one of whom has sworn under oath that he raped her, by the way) are responsible for his.  Hillary has chosen to remain married to her husband; her reasons are hers, and are none of my business.

Still glad that I get to vote on Wednesday, by the way.

(*) I looked up the timeline: I coulda sworn this happened earlier, but apparently Broaddrick’s allegation that Clinton had raped her happened in 1999, after both of his elections, and she denied it happening while being questioned under oath during the Paula Jones case.  I’m not interested right now in digging further to see if I’m thinking of a different person, and I don’t think the timeline changes much, honestly.

A handful of quick (possibly unnecessary) reminders

14355019_1130463423707041_9216674759976386590_n.jpgThe election was always going to tighten.  It’s in between the conventions and the debates.  The natural impulse is to revert to the mean.

The news media really, really, really wants this to be a horserace, so they’re going to do whatever they can to make it one.

National polls are meaningless and will remain so.  We do not have a national election.  Pay attention to the electoral college.

Donald Trump has no campaign and no ground game.  He barely even got on the ballot in Minnesota.  Early voting starts soon.  It will matter.

Trump will be graded on the curviest curve that ever curved at the debates.  Absolutely no matter what happens at the first debate, he will be named the winner if he does not shit himself.  It will be declared a tie if he actually does shit himself.  They will lose interest by the second (and third, if it happens) and the debates will widen Clinton’s lead again.

Tim Kaine will humiliate the fuck out of Mike Pence at the VP debate.  Sadly, it will not matter.

Pay little or no attention to the Stein and Johnson campaigns, particularly the Stein campaign, as Jill Stein is an Internet troll and not even a credible candidate by third-party standards.  They will not matter.  I don’t care how they’re performing on the ballot right now.  The election is still a month and a half away and their numbers will drop.

There has not been a single second so far where Donald Trump was in the lead.  Not one.

When in doubt, consult this image, and remember 2008 and 2012, and remember that those folks are going to show up again.

wegotthis.jpg

Dassit.

A FAQ on Hillary Clinton’s Nomination for the Presidency of the United States, for Those Who May Be Confused

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So.  Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

WASN’T THE AP JUMPING THE GUN JUST A BIT?

Well, maybe, if only because I kinda suspect Hillary had a plan for the whole “I’m the nominee” announcement.  But the AP is not required to consult her campaign before repeating the truth.  There are some states today, yeah.  She’ll win a couple and lose a couple; the announcement might have changed some people’s plan– on both sides– to vote today.  But all in all?  Nah.

BUT THE SUPERDELEGATES!

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE VOTING!

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT CLOSED PRIMARIES!

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

THE PRIMARY ISN’T–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT THE CONVENTION–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

THE SUPERDELEGATES HAVEN’T–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT BERNIE MIGHT–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT WHAT IF–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

BUT–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

WHAT ABOUT–

Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for the office of President of the United States of America.

Hope this helps.

Why I’m voting for Hillary Clinton today

This post is adapted from my comments on this thread at James Wylder’s website.  source-hillary-clinton-will-announce-her-2016-campaign-this-weekend-660x400.jpg

I spent the majority of the primary season formally undecided between the two Democratic candidates.  I officially “endorsed” Hillary Clinton, if I can pretend I’m important to be able to use that word, about a month ago.  But if you read that post you will note that it’s mostly a post about why I’d decided not to vote for Bernie, as opposed to a post about why I was voting for Clinton.  And after some prodding on the matter by James Wylder, I figured that a more affirmative post was something worth writing– and if I’m going to write such a thing, why not post it on the day my state actually votes in the primary?

So, yeah:  by the time you read this, I will either be about to cast my vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, or I will have already done so.  (Also, for those of you local enough for it to matter, Lynn Coleman, Dan Cruz, and Randy Magdalinski.)

I have said some terrible things about Hillary Clinton. If my 2008-era blog were still online, I could point you at some of them. Despite that, I’ll be proudly voting for her today. There are a bunch of reasons why that’s the case; I’ll touch on several of them. And I’ll say this right now: there will be people who can look at my reasons to vote for her and see them as reasons to not trust her. I’m aware of that, but these are MY reasons, so I don’t have to care.

My first reason to be happy to vote for Hillary is one that I know is probably going to catch me some crap: I am deliriously happy to be able to cast a vote for a woman for President. Period. We can argue about whether identity politics are “good reasons,” but ultimately I don’t care. We elected Obama; now I want a woman President. I want the stranglehold white men have on the corridors of power in this country broken, and this is another big crack in that foundation. Others may feel differently; that’s fine.

Second: one of the things I was very likely to tell people in 2008 about Barack Obama was that they should watch his campaign to see how he would govern. Obama ran a master-class campaign in 2008. Clinton did not, and she paid for it. She has– and this is a theme with her– watched and learned from her mistakes, and she is a VASTLY better candidate in 2016 than she ever was in 2008. People give her crap about changing her opinion, and only adopting more leftward positions when forced to. I see someone who’s willing to change her mind and learn from her mistakes. She’s running a clean, leak-free, no-drama campaign for office this year, and her advisors and the people close to her are all competent and doing their jobs. I was LIVID at some of the bullshit her campaign manager and some of her prime surrogates were pulling in 2008, and I know this isn’t about Bernie, but one of my problems with him is that he’s not controlling his people. I know the candidate can’t control their base, but they CAN tell their campaign staff to shut their yaps and do their jobs.

Third, and again this was a reason I frequently cited when I voted for Obama: I want the President to be clearly and obviously smarter than I am. Obama has spent his Presidency being the smartest guy in the room, and when I hear Clinton talk, while I don’t think she’s at his level (very, very few are, I think) I hear someone who is in full command of the details and the minutia of policy and someone smart enough to know their own mind and understand the nuances of what they’re trying to do. This has hurt her in the past (one of the big complaints about her health care bill was how complicated it was) but I need that from a Presidential candidate. She’s got the facts and figures and numbers at her fingertips, and she earned a reputation in the Senate of being 1) a very hard worker and 2) someone who was not afraid to get into the weeds of a new subject rather than rely on advisors. I want that type of person in the Oval Office, and I think she’s the only person in the race who IS that type of person. Maybe Cruz, actually; there are lots of reasons to vote against him but “he doesn’t know what he’s doing” is generally not one of them.

She’s a team player. I was very, VERY worried in 2008 about the PUMAs not coming home to Obama after the convention– much, much more worried than I have been about Bernie’s supporters. And then Hillary waded into the crowd at the floor of the convention and called for Obama to be nominated by acclamation. That was the first moment I’d been personally inspired by her, and it immediately revised my opinion of her up several points. She lost, she got over it, and she immediately went to work for her former opponent. No drama. She has worked hard to fund-raise for down-ticket Democratic candidates and she understands something that I think is critical for this race– that the President can’t do it alone, and if we want real change, just holding on to the White House isn’t enough– we HAVE TO change Congress, and we have to recapture more of the states. If she had lost this election, I have absolutely no doubt that she’d have worked as hard to get Sanders elected as she did for Obama.

Finally, and this ties in with my first point, I find a lot of the reasons people cite to not vote for Clinton to be, frankly, unconvincing.

I do not care about speaking fees. I care about results. I do not believe that Hillary Clinton, to pick one example, would not to work to rein in campaign finance because something something Wall Street. I’ve literally laughed at people for suggesting she doesn’t want Citizens United overturned. Citizens United existed so that right-wingers had a clever way to call Hillary Clinton a c*nt.

Is she ambitious? Absolutely. This is true of every single Presidential candidate in the history of forever. I think that she catches more crap for it than she has any reason to because she’s a woman. Is she untrustworthy? I don’t think so, and, again: “untrustworthy” and “ambitious” are words men use to describe powerful women. I want to be clear; I don’t think everyone voting for Sanders or against Hillary is a sexist, but I DO think sexism very much plays a role in the way we describe her.

Is she warm, empathetic, kind? Maybe. Sometimes. And I feel like she’s, again, done a much better job during this campaign of letting her personality out and being less outwardly controlled. But I don’t need the President to be my mother, or my drinking buddy, or my personal moral exemplar.  I need her to be President.  We’ve got countless examples of male politicians where “I’m a hardass” is virtually their entire reason for their candidacies; I do not need a female Presidential candidate to be huggable.

(Obama ran into a similar thing. He couldn’t ever be angry, because he knew that as soon as he got genuinely mad about something it would get turned back against him because he was a black man. Hillary is in a similar spot.)

I also find accusations that she’s a warmonger to be unconvincing. Is she more hawkish than Sanders? Sure. So am I. But the idea that she’s going to start six wars the day after she enters office is flatly ridiculous, ESPECIALLY in a context where her opponents on the other side have literally and unapologetically threatened to glass the entire Middle East as if it wasn’t a big deal.  She might be slightly more hawkish than Obama, but not much; say what you will about drones, but I’d rather have drones than another goddamned land war.

(You’d rather not have drones either?  Cool.  I ain’t mad atcha.  But your choices are “drones” or “nuclear weapons and land war.”  Trump and Cruz are both openly and obviously itching to use nuclear weapons.  Choose.)

I’ll post a picture of my sticker if I get one.

I’m not going to get a sticker again, am I?

In which I endorse

ClintonDEAL_WITH_ITddd.png

I’ve been leaning for a while, so it’s not as if this is likely to surprise anyone, but at this point I’ve officially made a decision, and I will be voting for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.  The primary itself isn’t until May 3rd, but I tend to vote early– possibly as soon as next week, since I’ll be downtown a fair amount.  I fully expect to also vote for Clinton in the November election, as I’ve expected her to get the nomination for a while now (and will continue to do so regardless of the results of the Wisconsin primary tonight; Sanders will win, but not by enough to make a difference) although I will happily vote for Sanders in November if it turns out that I am wrong about that.

That said, Sanders’ interview with the New York Daily News’ Editorial Board was what convinced me that my vote belonged with Hillary.  In general, in Democratic primaries, my vote tends to go to the candidate who pisses me off the least during the primary.  Pete Buttigieg earned my vote in his first election, by example, by being the last person in a field of several acceptable candidates to do something I found personally annoying.  And, again: should Bernie get the nomination somehow, I’ll vote for him.   I would vote for a half-eaten mayo and banana sandwich or something I scraped off the bottom of my shoe before I would allow any of the current Republican candidates anywhere near the White House, honestly.

But this interview.  Holy fuck, this interview.  It’s bad enough that it should end his candidacy, honestly, and it calls his readiness to run into question in some very serious ways.  It’s really, really, really bad.  I don’t have time to fisk the whole thing– the post would be ten thousand words long, easy, but here’s a few choice bits:

Sanders: So I think we need trade. But I think it should be based on fair trade policies. No, I don’t think it is appropriate for trade policies to say that you can move to a country where wages are abysmal, where there are no environmental regulations, where workers can’t form unions. That’s not the kind of trade agreement that I will support.

Daily News: So how would you stop that?

Sanders: I will stop it by renegotiating all of the trade agreements that we have. And by establishing principles that says that what fair trade is about is you are going to take into consideration the wages being paid to workers in other countries. And the environmental standards that exist.

This is far from the most egregious part of the interview, but scrolling through it again it was the first thing that jumped out:  this man is in the Senate.  If he’s not fully aware that “I will renegotiate every trade agreement that we have” is a bunch of crazy nonsense, nonsense I would expect to hear from Donald Trump or Sarah Palin, then … God, I don’t even know.  How, exactly, are you going to do that?  Because that’s batshittery of the highest order.

It’s the bit about the banks that’s the scariest.  It’s a bit too long to excerpt properly, but again, you need to read this interview.  Hating on Wall Street is Sanders’ entire schtick, and he reveals in this interview that he doesn’t have the faintest idea what he’s talking about, by his own admission:

Daily News: Okay. Well, let’s assume that you’re correct on that point. How do you go about <breaking up the banks>?

Sanders: How you go about doing it is having legislation passed, or giving the authority to the secretary of treasury to determine, under Dodd-Frank, that these banks are a danger to the economy over the problem of too-big-to-fail.

Daily News: But do you think that the Fed, now, has that authority?

Sanders: Well, I don’t know if the Fed has it. But I think the administration can have it.

Daily News: How? How does a President turn to JPMorgan Chase, or have the Treasury turn to any of those banks and say, “Now you must do X, Y and Z?”

Sanders: Well, you do have authority under the Dodd-Frank legislation to do that, make that determination.

Daily News: You do, just by Federal Reserve fiat, you do?

Sanders: Yeah. Well, I believe you do.

He doesn’t know if he has the authority to break up the banks.   He doesn’t know if the Fed has the authority to break up the banks.  And, as he reveals later:

Sanders: You would determine is that, if a bank is too big to fail, it is too big to exist. And then you have the secretary of treasury and some people who know a lot about this, making that determination. If the determination is that Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan Chase is too big to fail, yes, they will be broken up.

Daily News: Okay. You saw, I guess, what happened with Metropolitan Life. There was an attempt to bring them under the financial regulatory scheme, and the court said no. And what does that presage for your program?

Sanders: It’s something I have not studied, honestly, the legal implications of that.

He “hasn’t studied the legal implications” of what is probably a test case for his entire reason for existing as a candidate.

How do we break the banks up, an astonishingly fucking complicated task?  Underpants gnomes.

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This bit here is fun too:

Sanders: No, I wouldn’t say they were in the tank. I’m saying, a Sanders administration would have a much more aggressive attorney general looking at all of the legal implications. All I can tell you is that if you have Goldman Sachs paying a settlement fee of $5 billion, other banks paying a larger fee, I think most Americans think, “Well, why do they pay $5 billion?” Not because they’re heck of a nice guys who want to pay $5 billion. Something was wrong there. And if something was wrong, I think they were illegal activities.

Daily News: Okay. But do you have a sense that there is a particular statute or statutes that a prosecutor could have or should have invoked to bring indictments?

Sanders: I suspect that there are. Yes.

Daily News: You believe that? But do you know?

Sanders: I believe that that is the case. Do I have them in front of me, now, legal statutes? No, I don’t. But if I would…yeah, that’s what I believe, yes. When a company pays a $5 billion fine for doing something that’s illegal, yeah, I think we can bring charges against the executives.

“I believe,” “I suspect.”  This man is running for President.  How the fuck do you not know?

And then, later on, there’s this:

Daily News: Do you support the Palestinian leadership’s attempt to use the International Criminal Court to litigate some of these issues to establish that, in their view, Israel had committed essentially war crimes?

Sanders: No.

Daily News: Why not?

Sanders: Why not?

Daily News: Why not, why it…

Sanders: Look, why don’t I support a million things in the world? I’m just telling you that I happen to believe…anybody help me out here, because I don’t remember the figures, but my recollection is over 10,000 innocent people were killed in Gaza. Does that sound right?

Daily News: I think it’s probably high, but we can look at that.

Sanders: I don’t have it in my number…but I think it’s over 10,000. My understanding is that a whole lot of apartment houses were leveled. Hospitals, I think, were bombed. So yeah, I do believe and I don’t think I’m alone in believing that Israel’s force was more indiscriminate than it should have been.

I’m sorry, guys: he spends most of this interview sounding like a more articulate version of Donald Trump.  And, to be clear, that’s not a compliment, at all.  This interview is awful, awful in every way, and it reveals that Sanders just is not prepared right now to take on this job.  Is he better than the Republican alternatives?  Abso-fucking-lutely, which is why I’ll vote for him if he wins the primary.  And, for that matter, he’ll win the general if he somehow gets past Clinton.  But he’ll be a one-term President, and not a good one.

(Also: genuinely pissed about the fact that he’s refusing to help down-ballot Dems.  That’s basically coming as a coda at the end of a longish piece, and it doesn’t quite fit thematically, but he’s already got little enough chance to get his agenda passed with a Democratic Congress, and he’s not trying to get a Democratic Congress.  That’s political malpractice.)

So.  Yeah: #Imwithher.

 

A quick history lesson for Bernie Sanders supporters

bernie_2.jpgOnce upon a time, there was a guy named Barack Obama.  You may have heard of him.  No one outside the great state of Illinois had any idea who Barack Obama was until 2004, when he delivered the (brilliant) keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.  I lived in his district in Illinois at the time, and I spent a couple of hours on the phone after that speech telling everyone I knew that Obama would be the first black President so that I would get credit.

“You wait,” I said.  “2012 or 2016.  He’ll be President.”

You may see my mistake already.  In 2007, when Obama first declared that he was running for President, I was, with no trace of hyperbole, one of his biggest fans.  How do I know?  Because, again, virtually no one outside of Illinois knew who he was, and as someone in his district as a state Senator and Illinois Senator, someone who knew where his house was, I’d been following his career for a while.

And I wasn’t sure he was ready to be President.  Somebody else was running.  You may also be familiar with her: her name was Hillary Clinton, and her nomination was widely believed to be unstoppable.  (There was also John Edwards, but for the purposes of this conversation he’s irrelevant.)

I started off as a Clinton supporter, who felt that Obama would be a good President, would certainly grow into the job, but didn’t think he was ready.  It was the campaigns that convinced me otherwise.  Clinton displayed a startling talent to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and Obama’s team out-hustled and out-thought hers at every available opportunity.  Obama won Iowa, and got crushed in New Hampshire.  For the most part, especially early on, most of his victories were at caucuses.  Why was he winning the caucuses?  Because he out-organized Clinton, and eventually he was winning enough that that inevitability argument got punctured, and it was only a matter of time after that.

You may have heard something about superdelegates, and you may think it’s unfair that Secretary Clinton is so far ahead in delegates right now.  You may have even used the word “corrupt” to describe the system.

How many superdelegates do you think Barack Obama started off with?

How many do you think he had by the end of the primaries?

You are aware that these people are able to change their minds, right?  From what I’m hearing, Bernie Sanders supporters tend to be young people, a phrase I can no longer apply to myself.  It is possible you are not aware of these things.  Superdelegates have been a part of the process for a long time, and convincing them to vote for you is part of running for the Democratic nomination.  If Bernie Sanders was not aware of them already, and if he does not have a plan to (eventually) win their support, he is doing this wrong.   It is not as if these rules were decided behind his back, or were hidden from him somehow.  And, again, if he wins contests, they’ll come around.

“But the people are behind us!” you say.  Well, some of them.  Some of the white ones, anyway.  The rest of us haven’t had a chance to vote yet.

Speaking of voters of color.

You may be under the impression that Barack Obama was able to coast to these victories mostly on the strength of the black vote.  You may not be aware that the initial knock against Obama was that he was not black enough to court black support.

Go read that article.

I’ll wait.

Not only was Obama mixed, not only was he young, not only was he relatively unknown, not only was his middle name Hussein when we’d been fighting against Iraq for most of the previous administration, but he was running against Hillary Clinton, the wife of a man who was declared by no less a black luminary than Toni Morrison herself to be the first black President.  There is a good argument to be made that the Clintons do not deserve that support, but the fact is especially in 2007-08 black voters loved Bill Clinton and Hillary was widely believed to have inherited that support.  Obama was not supposed to be the candidate of black voters.  Clinton was.

Your candidate, Bernie supporters, is also perceived as having a problem with minority voters.  I’m using the word “perceived” intentionally, because insofar as the problem is real, it’s fixable.  But he’s going to have to acknowledge it, and he’s going to have to do it now.  Black voters– and Latino voters and Muslim voters and Asian voters and and and and and– are not monolithic and they’re not dumb.  They’re not going to vote for Hillary Clinton because they liked Bill.  Obama proved that.  Sanders can too, but he’s going to have to try.

Whining about a corrupt system and superdelegates is not going to get your man the nomination.  Whining about women voters going to Hillary is not going to get your man the nomination.

Whining, in general, is not going to get Bernie Sanders nominated for President.

Hillary Clinton is a lot of things.  Unfortunately for her, one of her previously displayed qualities is the ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  She is not inevitable.  She is beatable.  But the Sanders people are going to have to put in the work, and they’re going to have to engage with voters of color and with women voters in a serious way, and they’re going to have to convince the superdelegates– who are, in case you don’t know, mostly Democratic elected officials— that he’s the right man for the job.  Convincing the superdelegates might be difficult, seeing as how Sanders has only been a Democrat for, what, a year or two?  One of Clinton’s strengths is that she’s perceived as much more able to have coattails– to bring in other Democratic elected officials behind her, to alter the balance of power in the House and the Senate so that some of these nice things both candidates want to do become possible.

Is Bernie going to be able to do that?  Is he trying?

He probably ought to start.

See y’all in South Carolina.