Oh god I’m a nerd

It is Friday night, and I am sitting at my computer, listening to the first concert of Pearl Jam’s new tour, featuring the first live performances of half a dozen tracks from Dark Matter, and interpreting data from charts and spreadsheets.

In other words, this is very close to the perfect evening, and at 47 I may as well accept what I am because it’s not changing.

I am a rock star, ladies and gentlemen. We took the final NWEA of the year on Wednesday and Thursday, and … goddamn. I was elated by last year’s scores. I am fucking ecstatic with these. I have never seen results as good as what I got on this year’s spring NWEA before. And the really awesome thing is that I could go a dozen different ways after that sentence and they’d all be just as awesome.

Let’s back up a bit. The NWEA is administered three times a year and eats up a grand total of about twelve hours of instructional time over the course of the school year. It is primarily a growth test, with no concept of success or failure– the scores are indexed against grade levels, but you can’t fail the NWEA; you only show high achievement or low achievement compared to your grade cohort and high growth or low growth compared to other people in the score band of your grade cohort.

This is the kind of test I want. I get kids all over the map– kids taking a class two years above grade level and kids with 60 or 70 IQs. I don’t care whether or not my kids are successful against some arbitrarily designated cut score that can be manipulated depending on whether the politicians think we’re passing enough kids or not. I want to know whether they got better at math under my instruction. And the NWEA provides me with that data.

And it also provides me with something I really like– the ability to compare my own kids’ performance in Math against their performance in Reading, which I don’t teach, which is as close as I can get to an unbiased check on whether I’m doing my job right. Two years in a row now my kids’ Math growth has kicked the shit out of their Reading growth. It was rough last year; it was staggering this year. Which brings me to that chart up there. That’s my second hour. The pluses are their Math scores and the squares are their Reading scores, so each kid is represented twice on the graph. The farther to the right their boxes are, the better they performed, and the higher they are, the more their growth was. In other words, you want them in the green box and maybe not so much in the red box. Orange and yellow are on-one-hand-on-the-other-hand territory.

Here, let me clear the Reading scores out:

Now, this particular chart shows the two things I want to highlight more clearly than the rest of my classes, but believe me, these are common threads across all of my students. First, look at how many of them are high growth. I have four fucking kids at the 99th percentile in growth– in other words, kids who showed more growth than 99/100 of kids who took this test, nationwide. I have eleven across the 117 kids I have scores for. There were nine of them at the 90th percentile or above, just in that class. There were 26 across all of my classes– in other words, 22% of all of my students were in the top ten percent in growth in America.

I want a fucking raise.

The other thing I want you to notice is that yellow box, the one for kids who are high achievement but low growth. Notice that that fucker is empty.

If we look at my low-achievement kids, 44 of them were high growth and 44 were low growth. Which sounds exactly like you might expect, but “what box are they in” is kind of a blunt instrument. Almost 2/3 of my high achievement kids– 19 of 29– were also high growth. And the high-achievement kids are widely considered to be much more difficult to get to show growth.

This is interesting to me in terms of what it says about me as a teacher. I did a good job with my low-achievement kids. I want to dig into those numbers more and look at averages and medians to get a little more detail, but I’m still pretty damn happy with a 44/44 split. But I did a fantastic job with my high achievers. I am doing a mathematically demonstrably better job achieving growth with my high-achieving kids than with my low-achieving kids. Which, believe me, I’m going to make a point of when I campaign to get a Geometry class and maybe the other Algebra class back next year. I would love to see numbers from the guy who teaches the Geometry class at the only middle school in the district where it’s actually taught. If he’s beating the numbers I put up this year, I need to be sitting in on his class.

God, I love being a numbers nerd, and God, I love it when I get a chance to brag about my kids.

In which numbers are stupid and words are stupid and money is stupid and spreadsheets are stupid and everything is stupid

1c96f3844I was already not in the greatest of moods when I got home this afternoon; I spent the afternoon struggling to fix my parents’ laptop, a task I should have tackled weeks ago and I am starting to suspect is actually a world-class trolling attempt on Microsoft and Sony’s part, because no one could ever possibly think that Windows 8 is a real operating system.

(“Upgrade to Windows 10, it’s free,” you say?  “Die in a fire!” I say, because I’m fucking trying to, and I didn’t realize the magnitude of the fuckery until I tried to remove the cancer software from the computer.  Everyone involved in making Windows 8 should spend the rest of their lives in jail.)

Anyway.  I got home and put together a spreadsheet to help me try and suss out how many books to order for some of these cons I plan on being a vendor at, and what I have concluded is that it is going to be virtually impossible for me to make a profit at any of these things, especially if I eat while I’m on the road.  Now, I can literally make profit if I sell every book I bring with me, under some circumstances, but we’re looking at maybe a $3 an hour salary I’d be making over the three days of the con.  Is that worth it?  I don’t know.

And if I don’t sell everything?

Better mood tomorrow, I promise.

September blogwanking: #SilerSaturday edition

SPREADSHEET OF DOOOOOM!

Clicky for readable!
Clicky for readable!

Assuming you bothered to click, you’ll notice quickly that my nobody-wants-my-books trend of August has come to a sudden and abrupt halt.  In case you don’t remember, I made all three of my books exclusive to Amazon this month, and have been fiddling around with free days.  The result:  a whopping 553 downloads in September, along with four pre-orders for Searching for Malumba.

The interesting thing: You can see, easily, where the Saturday downloads were.  You can also see that this month had a lot of zero-sale days.  What also happened, though, was a lot of sales triggered by the free downloads, which was exactly what I was hoping would happen.  In particular, it appears (based on a single data point, mind you) that making The Sanctum of the Sphere free pushes people to buy The Benevolence Archives.  September is going to actually be a pretty good money month for Amazon, especially for a month with no book launch in it.  It’s just that all of the days I had sales have been concentrated into weekends.

I’m also starting to think that promotional efforts on my end don’t matter a whole lot.  It seems like how busy is Amazon today? is the single most important variable on whether a book does well, and that’s not something I can control very well.  It is, however, something I can learn to predict.  I’ll be doing a free promo for one of my books this week, and I’m not going to mention it at all other than to state that it won’t be on Saturday, just to see what my numbers do.

I’m also modifying my spreadsheet a bit next month so I can account for paid sales vs. free downloads from Amazon.  I’m hoping the sales are up in general, and having Malumba launch this month will help a bit; I’d like to see a lot less red in the ledger next time around.  But as for right now I’m feeling pretty good about how the month went.

(Also: respectable KENP reads.  Somebody’s reading my books out there– I had a 600-page day last week.  Cool!)

In which this took all day: Sales n’ Spreadsheets #blogwanking

This will be tiny and illegible, but those of you who care can click on it for a larger and actually readable edition. You still may have to scroll a bit, since I work with a 27″ monitor and this image is all sorts of horizontal:

Screen Shot 2015-01-24 at 7.17.30 PMBasically, a day of fiddling with Excel and every sales report I can get anyone to give me has convinced me that I need to start fresh and on my own with 2015, as not nearly enough of the data I have for 2014 can give me specific dates on which I made sales– or, at least, dates on which I made sales anywhere other than Amazon.  Smashwords’ date data seems to fall into a black hole after 30 days, so I’ll have to keep track of that separately and on my own if I want to be able to see it.  Thus, this Excel spreadsheet, which keeps track of each book and each venue the book is available at.  I have to manually enter day-by-day sales and then it totals everything up for me; line graphs are on the next sheet.

Interesting fact: As of last night (I had six BA sales yesterday!) I’ve sold more books in January than there are days in January.  That’s a first for me if you don’t count the couple of KDP Select free days that I gave Benevolence Archives 1 when it was on Select at Amazon; those garnered hundreds of downloads.  If I was able to make BA free at Amazon I would get a lot more visibility for it.  Select has been good for Skylights, hands down, no debate, and I suspect when BA 2 launches in April it will be on Select as well.

It remains to be seen if my nonsense is finally starting to catch on a bit, if Select is solely responsible for this, or if people just buy more books in January than they do in December.  But it’s probably worth pointing out that my January check from Amazon will probably be at least a fourth of my income from writing in all of 2014.  That’s gotta mean things are looking up, right?

And, just for the hell of it:

They’re good.  I promise!